Response of Fiscal Policy Variables to Fluctuations in Oil Prices in Iraq for the Period (1990-2019)
Abstract
The research aims to measure the extent to which the fiscal policy variables respond to fluctuations in oil prices in Iraq, and the research assumed that the fiscal policy variables respond directly to fluctuations in oil prices. Using the autoregressive nonlinear distributed lag (NARDL) model. The (NARDL) model enables us to test the hypothesis of whether the co-integration relationship between the variables is linear or non-linear or even the absence of a co-integration relationship between them. The analysis data was used for the period (1990-2019) in Iraq, and we found that the stability of fiscal policy in Iraq is more sensitive to negative shocks to oil prices than to positive shocks, and the rises and falls in oil prices contribute to achieving the long-term co-integration relationship between economic policy variables with their positive and negative changes and between the rate of public expenditures and tax revenues, where public expenditures need to (23) for approximately a month to return to its equilibrium value in the long term after the effects of the shocks in the economic policy variables, while tax revenues need approximately seven and a half months to return to their equilibrium value in the long term.
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