TANMIYAT AL-RAFIDAIN

Abstract

Abstract
In this empirical study, modeling the exchange rate of the Jordanian Dinar and US Dollar against the Israeli Sheikl is done by using the ARIMA and Transfer Function models. I demonstrated the importance of outlier detection and adjustment through the parameters significances and the moderate change in forecasted values. I come up with the conclusion that the transfer function forecasts better track the data as compared to the ARIMA forecasts. By this study, I added new empirical evidence on the important of transfer function modeling that is forward-looking. It will capture both the immediate and longer term effects of intervention.
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